확률 계산기
"1% 템, 100번이면 나오나?" 상자 열기와 몬스터 사냥 모두 계산할 수 있어요.
한 번 이상 얻을 확률—
기대 획득 개수—
50% 확률로 얻으려면—
90% 확률로 얻으려면—
99% 확률로 얻으려면—
넥슨 공식 상자 확률
넥슨이 공지한 글로벌 메이플스토리 클래식 월드 랜덤박스 확률이에요. 아이템을 누르면 계산기에 확률이 들어가요.
Mystery Fashion Crate
| 아이템 | 확률 |
|---|---|
| Starred Hunting Hat | 2% |
| Black Blazer | 1% |
| Blue Frill Blouse | 2% |
| Blue Bell Dress | 2% |
| Black Suit Pants | 1% |
| Frameless Glasses | 1% |
| Gentleman's Mustache | 1% |
| Black Dress Shoes | 2.5% |
| Cute Mouse Ears | 1% |
| Superstar Hoodie | 1% |
| Black "Hit Me" Shirt | 1.5% |
| Black Classic Sneakers | 2.5% |
| Green Camping Hat | 3% |
| Green Camping Shirt | 3% |
| Green Camping Shorts | 3% |
| Camping Boots | 3% |
| Ragged Top | 1% |
| Torn-up Jeans | 1% |
| Crusader T-Shirt | 2.5% |
| Black Cardigan Set | 2.5% |
| Heart Balloon | 1% |
| Puffy Brown Hat | 2.5% |
| Orange Hooded Vest | 2.5% |
| Plastic Slingshot | 2% |
| White Beanie | 2.5% |
| White Casual Suit | 2.5% |
| Faded Bell-Bottom Jeans | 2.5% |
| Washed Jeans | 2.5% |
| Race Ace Cap | 1% |
| Race Ace Suit | 2.5% |
| Race Queen Uniform | 2.5% |
| Race Queen Boots | 2.5% |
| Detective Hat | 2.5% |
| Premium Trenchcoat | 2.5% |
| Wild Pants | 2.5% |
| Brown Dress Shoes | 2.5% |
| Beige Checkered Hat | 2.5% |
| Kitty Camping Hat | 2.5% |
| Brown Casual Look | 2.5% |
| Orange Hard-Rimmed Glasses | 1% |
| Michael Wings | 1% |
| Silver Earrings | 1% |
| Stylish Pink Cotton Cap | 1% |
| Cherry Layered T | 2.5% |
| Buddy Overall Jeans (Blue) | 2% |
| Buddy Overall Jeans (Red) | 2% |
| Denim Wrinkled Skirt | 2.5% |
| Green Overall | 2% |
| Velcro High Tops | 2.5% |
| Toy Rifle | 1% |
Halloween Mystery Fashion Crate
| 아이템 | 확률 |
|---|---|
| Tiger Mask | 2% |
| Prisoner Top | 2% |
| Prisoner Pants | 2% |
| Brown Bandage | 2% |
| Scream Mask | 3% |
| Skull T-Shirt | 2% |
| Bone Buckled Slacks | 3% |
| Skull Beanie | 3% |
| Dark Suit | 3% |
| Dark Enamel Suit | 3% |
| Black Leather Boots | 3% |
| Black Bandage | 2% |
| Skull Patch | 1% |
| Grey Skull Overall | 2.5% |
| Red Skull Overall | 2.5% |
| Skull Gloves | 2% |
| Black Coat of Death | 2% |
| Ghost Suit | 2% |
| Black Shoes of Death | 3% |
| Hat of Death | 2% |
| Ragged Gomushin | 2% |
| Witch Hat | 2% |
| Ghost Costume | 3% |
| Witch Clothes | 2% |
| Witch's Broomstick | 1% |
| Gargoyle Wings | 1% |
| Battle Scar | 1% |
| Mummy Hat | 2% |
| Mummy Suit | 2% |
| Mummy Mask | 2% |
| White Bandage | 2% |
| Devil Wings | 1% |
| Blue Chinese Undead Hat | 2% |
| Blue Chinese Undead Costume | 2% |
| Maple-Stein Head | 2% |
| Maple-Stein Face | 2% |
| Demon Goblin | 1% |
| Pumpkin Hat | 2% |
| Pumpkin Headgear | 2% |
| Pumpkin Suit | 2% |
| Glowing Pumpkin Basket | 2% |
| Evil Skull | 1% |
| Cat Soul | 1% |
| Devilish Horns | 2% |
| Devil Horns | 2% |
| Dark Devil Hat | 2% |
| Coffin of Gloom | 2% |
| Count Dracula Cape | 1% |
| Iljimae Mask | 2% |
| Stealth Suit | 2% |
Founder's Mystery Fashion Crate
| 아이템 | 확률 |
|---|---|
| Angel Halo | 1% |
| Toga | 1% |
| Baby Angel Wings | 1% |
| Angel Wand | 1% |
| Cherub's Bow | 1% |
| Blue Cap | 2% |
| Orange Baseball Jacket | 2.5% |
| Rainbow Knit | 2.5% |
| Ripped Jeans | 2.5% |
| Orange Toy Hammer | 1% |
| Blue Bucket Hat | 2.5% |
| Tourist T | 2.5% |
| White Jeans | 2.5% |
| Black Sunglasses | 1% |
| Cat Hat | 2.5% |
| Cat Suit | 2.5% |
| Gold Kitty Slippers | 2.5% |
| Kitty Chat Ring | 2.5% |
| Meshcap | 2.5% |
| Pink Allstar | 2.5% |
| Jean Shorts | 2.5% |
| Beret | 2.5% |
| Red Sailor Shirt | 2.5% |
| Red Sailor Skirt | 2.5% |
| Black Enamel Shoes | 2.5% |
| Patissier Hat | 3% |
| Patissier Uniform | 3% |
| Yellow Spatula | 1% |
| Bunny Ears | 1% |
| Bunny Earmuffs | 1% |
| Orange Mushroom Balloon | 1% |
| Blue Watch | 2.5% |
| Red Trainer Jacket | 2.5% |
| Red Trainer Pants | 2.5% |
| Yellow Rainbow Sneaks | 2.5% |
| Dollish Pink | 1% |
| Purple Dorothy Dress | 2.5% |
| Sailor Hat | 2% |
| Sailor Outfit | 2% |
| White Ribboned Sailor Dress | 2% |
| Slime T-Shirt | 1% |
| Slime Slippers | 1% |
| Slime Earrings | 1% |
| Reggae Hat | 2.5% |
| Orange Hooded Shirt | 2.5% |
| White Hooded Vest | 2.5% |
| Butterfly Skirt | 2.5% |
| Beetle Long Sleeve | 2.5% |
| Lined Hip-Hop Pants | 2.5% |
| White Label Ring | 1% |
Aurora Mystery Fashion Crate
| 아이템 | 확률 |
|---|---|
| White Choco Bunny | 1.5% |
| Splash Choco Boy | 2.5% |
| Splash Choco Girl | 2.5% |
| Cacao Bear Shoes | 2.5% |
| Chocolate Ribbon | 2.5% |
| Soft Chocolate Fondue Scepter | 1.5% |
| Choco Candy Cookie | 2% |
| Black Cat Beanie | 5% |
| Sky Blue Cat Beanie | 5% |
| Orange Cat Beanie | 5% |
| Heart Sunglasses | 5% |
| Red Check Rider | 5% |
| Violet Dot Jeans | 5% |
| Pink Bunny Sweater | 5% |
| Hearts Tights | 5% |
| Pink Elephant Slippers | 5% |
| Loose Fit Sweater | 4.5% |
| Stocking Shorts | 4.5% |
| Detective Glass | 2% |
| Blank Eye Patch | 2% |
| Heartbreaker Lips | 2% |
| Starlight Heart Scepter | 2% |
| Ink-and-Wash Thought Bubble Ring | 5.75% |
| Ink-and-Wash Painting Name Tag Ring | 5.75% |
| Chocolate Label Ring | 5.75% |
| Chocolate Chat Ring | 5.75% |
Signature Style Collection
| 아이템 | 확률 |
|---|---|
| Frieren Outfit Set Coupon | 1.5% |
| Frieren Outfit Set (Ringlets) Coupon | 1.5% |
| Frieren Outfit Set (Sleep) Coupon | 1.5% |
| Himmel Outfit Set Coupon | 2.5% |
| Fern Outfit Set Coupon | 7% |
| Übel Outfit Set Coupon | 8% |
| Stark Outfit Set Coupon | 8% |
| Aura Outfit Set Coupon | 20% |
| Linie Outfit Set Coupon | 20% |
| Lügner Outfit Set Coupon | 30% |
Male Hair Styles
| 아이템 | 확률 |
|---|---|
| Bed Head Hair | 16.67% |
| Prince Cut Hair | 16.67% |
| Short Regent Cut | 16.67% |
| Dreamcatcher | 16.67% |
| Metrosexual Hair | 16.67% |
| Antagonist | 16.67% |
Female Hair Styles
| 아이템 | 확률 |
|---|---|
| Lovely Ladyhawk | 16.67% |
| Ponytail-to-the-Side | 16.67% |
| Vivacious Wavy Hair | 16.67% |
| Angelica Hair | 16.67% |
| Caspia Hair | 16.67% |
| Rose | 16.67% |
Male Face Styles
| 아이템 | 확률 |
|---|---|
| Innocent Gaze | 16.67% |
| Distant Gaze | 16.67% |
| Rebel's Fire | 16.67% |
| Worrisome Glare | 16.67% |
| Alert Face | 16.67% |
| Overjoyed Smile | 16.67% |
Female Face Styles
| 아이템 | 확률 |
|---|---|
| Prim Face | 16.67% |
| Posh Look | 16.67% |
| Bulbous-Eyed Face | 16.67% |
| Round Eyed Face | 16.67% |
| Beauty Stare | 16.67% |
| Strong Stare | 16.67% |
Male Hair Styles 예정 확률
The below rates and rewards will take effect on Wednesday, October 28 at 8:00 AM UTC. Please note that the displayed percentages are rounded, and the total sum of all rates may not add up to exactly 100%.
| 아이템 | 확률 |
|---|---|
| Angelcakes Hair | 16.67% |
| Super Tuft Hair | 16.67% |
| Wild Tangles Hair | 16.67% |
| Natural | 16.67% |
| Casanova | 16.67% |
| Roving Rockstar | 16.67% |
Female Hair Styles 예정 확률
The below rates and rewards will take effect on Wednesday, October 28 at 8:00 AM UTC. Please note that the displayed percentages are rounded, and the total sum of all rates may not add up to exactly 100%.
| 아이템 | 확률 |
|---|---|
| Fluffy Pigtails | 16.67% |
| Romantic Braid Hair | 16.67% |
| Grace Hair | 16.67% |
| Onna's Honor | 16.67% |
| Francesca | 16.67% |
| Cecelia Twist | 16.67% |
Male Face Styles 예정 확률
The below rates and rewards will take effect on Wednesday, October 28 at 8:00 AM UTC. Please note that the displayed percentages are rounded, and the total sum of all rates may not add up to exactly 100%.
| 아이템 | 확률 |
|---|---|
| Crystal Face | 16.67% |
| Puppy Eyes Face | 16.67% |
| Curious Dog | 16.67% |
| Dramatic Face | 16.67% |
| Ghostface Stare | 16.67% |
| Sad Innocence | 16.67% |
Female Face Styles 예정 확률
The below rates and rewards will take effect on Wednesday, October 28 at 8:00 AM UTC. Please note that the displayed percentages are rounded, and the total sum of all rates may not add up to exactly 100%.
| 아이템 | 확률 |
|---|---|
| Tender Love | 16.67% |
| Pure Gaze | 16.67% |
| Bright Eyes | 16.67% |
| Existentially Tired Face | 16.67% |
| Lazy Look | 16.67% |
| Innocent Look | 16.67% |
넥슨 공식 확률 공지를 그대로 옮겼어요. 넥슨 안내에 따르면 표시된 확률은 반올림되어 합계가 정확히 100%가 아닐 수 있어요. · nexon.com · 데이터 갱신: 2026-10-28
몬스터 드롭률
넥슨 공식 확률 페이지에는 랜덤박스 확률만 있고 몬스터 드롭률은 없어요. 그래서 여기에는 출처가 확인된 드롭률만 올려요.
행을 누르면 계산기에 바로 들어가요.
| 몬스터 | 아이템 | 드롭률 | 출처 | 비고 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 아직 출처가 확인된 드롭률이 없어요. 몬스터별 드롭 목록은 사이트 모음의 DB 사이트에서 볼 수 있어요. | ||||
데이터 갱신: 2026-10-28
계산 방법
- 한 번 이상 얻을 확률 = 1 − (1 − p)ⁿ
- 기대 획득 개수 = n × p
- c 확률로 얻는 데 필요한 횟수 = ⌈ ln(1 − c) / ln(1 − p) ⌉